Do assumption-based journeys work?

Jan 11 / Michel Stevens

Most organizations build their customer journey maps the easy way. They gather stakeholders in a room, pool their assumptions, sketch out what they think the customer experience looks like, and call it done. It's fast. It's cheap. It feels productive.


It's also dangerously wrong.


A journey map built on assumptions is a fiction. It's a story your organization tells itself about how customers behave, what they need, and where they struggle. And like most stories, it bears little resemblance to reality. The problem is that your organization will use this fiction to make real decisions. 


There's a better way. It's not faster. It's not cheaper. But it's the difference between building experiences that resonate with customers and building experiences that frustrate them.

The risks of an assumption-based journey map are real. First, these maps carry less weight in your organization. When you present a map built on hunches and stakeholder opinions, people dismiss it as "anecdotal." It doesn't drive change because it doesn't feel credible. Second, and more dangerous, your team will use these inaccurate maps to make decisions that actually harm the customer experience. You might optimize for the wrong moments. You might solve problems that don't exist while ignoring the ones that do.

The alternative is research-backed journey mapping. It's grounded in what customers actually do, what they actually feel, and what actually matters to them. And when you present a map built on real customer data, something shifts. People listen. They believe it. They act on it.

Start by looking inward

Before you invest in new research, spend time exploring what you already know. Most organizations have data scattered across departments—customer support logs, website analytics, satisfaction scores, previous research studies. This data is a goldmine.


Your support logs reveal the problems customers encounter. Your analytics show where they struggle in the digital experience. Your satisfaction scores highlight which moments matter most. Your previous research contains insights you've already paid for. By consolidating this existing data, you can develop a foundational understanding of the customer journey and identify the specific areas where you need deeper insight.


This step is critical because it shapes everything that comes next. It tells you where to focus your research efforts and what questions to ask.

Real insight comes from listening

Quantitative data tells you what customers do. It tells you that 40% of users abandon the signup process, or that satisfaction drops at a particular touchpoint. But it doesn't tell you why. It doesn't tell you what they were thinking, what frustrated them, or what would have made the experience better.

That's where qualitative research comes in. It's the difference between knowing that customers are unhappy and understanding why they're unhappy.

Customer interviews allow you to hear directly from customers about their experiences, their frustrations, and their needs. The best interviews are specific, not broad. Instead of asking "How do you feel about our service?" ask "What was the most frustrating part of the onboarding process?" Specific questions unlock specific insights.

Contextual inquiry—observing customers in their natural environment—is where the real discoveries happen. You see what they actually do, not what they say they do. You notice the workarounds they've created. You spot the moments where they get confused or frustrated. A customer service representative might tell you they follow the "correct" protocol for answering questions. But when you observe them actually doing their job, you discover they've invented a completely different process because the official one doesn't work.

Diary studies are particularly powerful for understanding journeys that unfold over time. Instead of relying on memory, customers document their experiences as they happen. You capture their thoughts and feelings in real-time, across multiple channels and touchpoints. This method eliminates the fallibility of memory and gives you a complete picture of the journey.

An approach with multiple sources

The most compelling journey maps come from combining multiple research methods. You might start with customer interviews to develop an initial hypothesis about the journey. Then use contextual inquiry to validate and enrich what you've learned. Run a diary study in parallel to understand how the experience unfolds over time. Finally, use competitive analysis to see how your journey compares to alternatives customers might consider.

IKEA's Ethnographic Approach

Swedish furniture company IKEA provides a compelling example of how deep customer research informs strategy. Rather than assuming they knew how people wanted to live, IKEA invested heavily in ethnographic research—observing how people actually use their homes, what challenges they face, and what solutions they need. This research shaped everything from product design to store layout to the entire customer experience. The result is a company that feels intuitively aligned with how customers actually live(1).
Building a research-backed journey map requires investment. It takes time. It costs money. It's tempting to skip it and go with the assumption map.

But here's what happens when you do the research: You make better decisions. You allocate resources to the moments that actually matter. You solve real problems instead of imagined ones. You build experiences that customers love instead of tolerate.

The journey map isn't the goal. Better customer experiences are the goal. And research-backed journey maps are the most reliable path to getting there.
(1) Cieden. (n.d.). Customer Journey Mapping Online & Offline: an IKEA Case Study

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